Understanding the Cash Conversion Cycle and How to Speed it Up

Have you ever encountered a business that is profitable, yet does not have the money it needs to pay its bills?  This is a plague for many small businesses and farms. You see, it takes cash to pay bills.  You cannot take an account receivable and give it to your utility company to satisfy your electric bill.  You also cannot give your bank excess inventory you have in order to make your mortgage payment.

The process of taking cash, turning it into a product, selling the product on account, and then collecting on that account is the cash conversion cycle. How many stops must cash take along the path from initial cash, then adding value of some form, and finally collecting cash at the end? This is important for a business to know since, after all, cash pays the bills. 

So let’s start the trip along the cash conversion cycle. Now every stop on the way may not apply to some businesses. Also, if the company does not have enough money to satisfy all debts at each point of the cycle, then it has a borrowing need to help fund inventory, receivables, or production. 

Stop 1:  Purchasing materials to create a product. This step will not happen with a company that does not make a product or grow a crop.  If the firm carries no inventory then there will be no funds that are spent here. Also, if a company provides a service, such as a computer repair company, and carries no inventory, no money will be spent here. 

The time spent here, from company to company, will also vary. A potato chip plant may have potatoes delivered and dumped into a bin at the start of a day, and bags of potato chips are shipped just hours later. A company that makes durable goods, such as aircraft, will take more time in this stage of the cycle. 

When cash is spent on material and labor to produce the product, it is not available for other operating expenses. Some tips to manage this stop are:

  • Watch material and inventory levels and do not purchase more than what is needed. Doing so is a use of cash and can hamper profits.  I once saw a hardware store that would borrow money to purchase product for resale. When they sold that product, they would not pay off the bank loan, they used it to purchase more items to sell. 
  • Note the average time frame that it takes inventory to turn over with other companies in your same industry. The hardware store I mentioned only turned their inventory over once a year, when the industry average was much quicker.  As such, they to continue to borrow money to operate, which left them with an unsustainable level of debt. 
  • Suppliers can provide a source of cash if they provide you with generous terms.  I once studied a restaurant that had no debt on their building, fixtures, or operating line from their bank.  They sold over $3 million annually and supplied all their cash needs by paying for food on 45 day terms with their supplier. 

Stop 2:  Taking the product you produced to market.  This step happens once a company has completed creating the item and is taking it to market to sell.  Different industries have different time frames for this step in the cycle.  Also, sometimes, a firm may intentionally stay at stop two.  An example here is if a farmer harvests crop and waits to sell the product as he is expecting to get a better price in the future.  That may work, but there is also a carrying cost to holding onto an item instead of selling it. 
It is important here to not over produce your sales demand, as this will cost you money. Also, learn to be disciplined in your selling approach.  Always trying to grasp the brass ring of the highest possible price for your product often comes with a cost of capital. You may not be making as much profit in the long run as you think.

Stop 3:  Collecting money on an account receivable. This step does not apply to some firms. If you are a retailer and sell no items on account, this step does not apply.  But if you sell a product or complete a service and then create an invoice for the buyer, this step applies to you. 

It is important to see how your company stacks up against the industry. If it takes you much longer to collect your receivables, you will use more cash than similar companies. It is possible to run a profitable business but to be in need of cash. Many times this is because of a lack of collecting your accounts on a timely manner. 

Here some methods may be to offer a slight discount if an invoice is paid within 10 days.  You also may consider the extra cost on your business to collecting accounts slowly.  This may need to be built into your price.  If accounts cannot be collected quickly enough to satisfy cash needs, then the company may need to borrow on an account receivable loan or turn to factoring to receive cash quicker.

Managing the cash conversion cycle and minimizing the natural stops can make a huge difference in the cash needs a business has to have to operate.  Simple steps like paying suppliers slightly slower, managing inventory levels, and speeding up the collection process could minimize or eliminate the need for an operating line for the company.

Why Aren't Business Loans Priced Like Regular Mortgages?

The United States has a unique mortgage product that has helped tens of millions of Americans become homeowners. That is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. From a banking perspective, that is a really impressive deal. A loan for 30 full years, and the interest rate never changes? Wow!

In reality, how does a bank or a credit union make a loan like that work? Consider that in banking, you fund loans with deposits. Do credit unions have deposits that will be left in place for 30 years? In all likelihood, probably not. That means if interest rates increased, the credit union would have to pay more for deposits to keep money at the institution, but it would be unable to increase the interest rate on the 30-year mortgage. It seems like making a loan with a fixed interest rate for 30 years could be risky business. What if over a 30-year period, the deposits became more expensive than the mortgage?!

The truth of the matter is, a 30-year loan is not really funded by deposits in the long run. What happens is the credit union makes the 30-year loan, and then it turns around, sells the loan to someone else, and the credit union then gets all its money back. Viola! The deposits are no longer tied up in a 30-year loan, and they now have more cash to make other loans with.

Who is buying these 30-year fixed rate loans? Investors, typically insurance companies and retirement funds. They need a predictable long-term stream of income, and what is more predictable than someone paying their mortgage every month? So what really determines the interest rate on a 30-year loan is what these investors want their return to be. This is usually a much lower interest rate than the rates a credit union would typically charge on a loan. But at the end of the day, it is not the credit union who will own the loan, so the credit union doesn’t have to worry about balancing this interest rate risk.

When a loan is underwritten to a standard which the investors are willing to buy it, we call it a “conforming” loan. A huge mistake credit unions might make is trying to price all their real estate loans like conforming loans, when they are not all conforming. A non-conforming loan is one that will not be purchased by investors, so why should they be priced low like investors are buying them?

Non-conforming loans should be priced based off the underlying deposits, not based on what secondary market investors want. The act of trying to match the price and term of deposits with the price and term of loans is called “asset-liability management” which is abbreviated as ALM. All non-conforming loans should be priced according to ALM principles, and not rates found in the secondary market.

We should consider that all business loans too, even those for commercial real estate, are non-conforming loans. There is a secondary market for commercial real estate loans, but those investors do their own underwriting and do not purchase loans from banks or credit unions. In light of these facts, that means a credit union should also price their commercial real estate loans according to ALM policies.

In other words, we should ask ourselves what is the cost of a five-year deposit, and then add a percentage on top of that to get our 5-year fixed loan rate. Even if someone is financing rental houses, they should be priced according to ALM and not what secondary market investors pay for home mortgages. This is, of course, because the business loan to finance rental houses can’t be sold, or won’t be purchased by those investors in the secondary market.

Your Business Lending CUSO in 2017

By the time you read this, you will be wrapping up the first week of 2017. Congratulations, only 51 more weeks to go!

With the start of the new year, I thought it might be helpful to remind everyone about who and what Pactola is. We are a one-stop-shop CUSO for everything related to business lending. CUAD actually owns 10% of Pactola and helped start the CUSO, so that all credit unions in the Dakotas would have access to local professionals who could help them with business lending. All together, we have eight senior equity owners and eighteen junior equity owners. Our ownership now includes credit unions from North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Minnesota and Ohio.

What does Pactola do in the business lending sphere? We have three main business lines. The principle reason we were established was to serve as a central servicer for participation loans. In other words, credit unions come to us because they need help participating out a loan, or because they want to buy a loan participation. We are in the middle, providing a standardized set of analysis, file management, documentation and reporting. If you need help selling or buying a loan participation, call us.

Our second largest business line is “consulting” or “in-house” services. Credit unions may want help with writing a business loan policy or participation policy. Or, they want help with underwriting, 3rd party reviews, file audits, documentation, etc. So if a credit union needs general assistance with a business loan they aren’t participating, we are here to help with that too. That includes special knowledge regarding government programs like the Small Business Administration (SBA), the USDA programs, or even things like Historic Tax Credits.

Our last business line is education. We see that credit unions want to learn more about business lending, and want to better understand the underwriting that goes into our loans, whether it is a participation or in-house loan. It used to be most of our sessions were held in the fall, but now we are spreading them out throughout the year in case people want to attend more than one. The schedule for this year is as follows:

·         MBL Boot Camp (Intro to Business Lending) : March 20-21 in Sioux Falls, SD
·         Commercial Real Estate Lending : May 22-23 in Minneapolis, MN
·         Commercial & Industrial / Small Business Lending : August 7-8 in Omaha, NE
·         Ag Lending Forum : September 25-26 in Miles City, MT

We should also mention that we’ll be helping our credit union partners at several CUAD and CUNA events throughout the year. Feel free to introduce yourself to us at any of these if you feel you could use some help. Here is a list of events we are sure to attend:

·         MonDak Roundtable : Jan 10-11
·         CUAD Hike the Hill in SD: Jan 25
·         CUNA Business Roundtable: Feb. 7-9
·         CUAD ND Legislative Reception : Feb. 21
·         CUNA GAC: Feb. 26 – March 2
·         CUAD Summit: April 10-12

If you hope to do more with business lending in 2017, please reach out to us. We love hearing from our old partners and new contacts alike. We care most about you succeeding, because that is the only way we can succeed.

Being Intentional

The start of a new year often marks the time for creating resolutions.  This may involve a long list of getting in shape, quit smoking, losing weight, or stopping bad habits.  Some people have items focused on making them a better person, like spending more time with family or learning to listen more.  Maybe your list includes giving more time to charity or community service.  In any case, the items on the list are designed to be a commitment to make us better.

Often these lists are onerous and unrealistic to keep for any long time.  We tend to be weak in our human resolve at times.  For those of us with the strongest determination, resolutions may last through the winter or even into spring.  I think many of us have too many items on the list that prohibit us from ever being successful.  Perhaps this involves a simpler goal of resolutions in order to be successful. 

The start of this new year also marks a much quieter house for our Love household.  Our two sons are now moved out and my wife and I only have our youngest daughter who is home with us.  At times, the silence can be deafening compared to what we have been used to. 

Beginning to empty out the nest makes one reflect on life.  Before this time, you have kids with you each and every day.  Evenings are spent with a houseful of kids and there is a lot of interaction with all the family members.  You may also have a lot of planned activity that surrounds our kids.  Now, you have to work with not seeing or visiting with your kids on a daily basis.  We had all of our kids at home for Christmas and wonder if this will be the same case when the holidays roll around this year.  So it makes that whenever you have time with them you want to make it count.  It also reminds you of all the times that you were with your family physically, but were not fully engaged. 

So what if we set a simpler goal for resolutions?  My challenge is to you is to be intentional this year.  What about your work?  Have you ever had days or even weeks when you just showed up at work and were not fully engaged with your job.  What things could we accomplish with our work if we gave a consistent focused effort, instead of just getting by? Imagine what goals could be reached by your business if all exhibited a razor sharp focus and effort. 

For those in school or higher education (which covers all of my family except me) what difference can focused, intentional effort make in your learning?  Could it be that your focus could make the difference in a positive way and something you pick up in class will make a difference in your life later on?  I think we are all created to accomplish great things in our lives. 

I don’t think we were designed to just float aimless through life.  Intentional focus may make the difference between mediocracy and greatness.  It does take effort.  Time must be well thought out instead of not planned.

Even more so than just in our jobs and education, being intentional is more important with the people we have in our lives.  In the end, the relationships you have will be more important than what your accomplishments or possessions are.  What difference could we make if we used our energy to really get involved in the lives of every person in our homes instead of just living in the same house?  What if we took time to really listen to our friends and get to know what makes them tick instead of keeping the conversation on the surface?  What changes could we see with our co-workers, members, or customers by being intentional?  What positive differences would we see in the lives of others? 

Intentionality does require prioritizing.  It may mean giving up time spent on the job to spend a little more time with your family.  It also takes effort.  It may be as simple as taking time to learn the name of the customer who always comes in at 9AM on Tuesday or turning off the football game to listen to your wife’s day. 

I challenge you this year to be intentional.  The investment will pay rich rewards in your accomplishments, but more importantly in your faith, your relationships, and your friendships.  Life is much richer and greater by being intentional, than if we just float through it.

How Jolly Are You?

“Tis the season to be jolly…” goes one of the favorite Christmas carols.  But is jolly just accompanied with holly and fa-la-las?  Is this just something for this time of the year?

My dictionary app defines the verb jolly as “in good spirits; lively; merry; cheerfully festive or convivial; joyous; happy; delightful; charming.”  That does seem to apply for some in this season of the year.  Many may feel this way as they are surrounded by family and friends.  Perhaps business success, great grades on finals, election results, or new opportunities in life can cause one to be jolly.  In Britain, it is also a slang term for one who is slightly drunk or tipsy.  That definitely applies to some folks! 

This season is painful for many as well.  We remember Christmases past and loved ones who are not at the table.  Some have passed on.  Some are off serving our country a long way from home.  Others may not be able to get home because of other commitments.  We hope to be together with them again.

For our house, it is full of excitement as my youngest son, who has been in Kentucky at college since August, is flying home.  Our oldest, who just took a job in a remote town in northern South Dakota, will be coming in as well.  We will have our family together, though our extended family will be several states away. In that sense, we will be jolly with our kids.  It also gives up hope for growth in the future.

This time marks the end of a year.  Most of us reflect on the wins and losses we have had throughout the year.  These can come in our business, school, or personally.  This year has been filled with both for our team at Pactola.  But I am joyful for our group and also the relationships we have established and have grown with those in this field.  We work with terrific people who are winners and who help those around them become winners.

Christmas Eve is also a special time for me as it was on that night, 25 years ago, that my wife accepted my proposal.  This event definitely makes us jolly and hopeful as we remember that night together as we opened gifts for the first time together and she put the ring on her finger!

Most importantly for this season of the year, amid all the parties, shopping, and events, I trust that you will remember the real reason this season is jolly and full of hope.  It is found in Luke where the writer pens, “a Savior is born, who is Christ the Lord.”  May your Christmas season be jolly and filled with hope this and each year.

Inflation Explained by the 12 Days of Christmas

In my data driven world, I’ve been pouring over information that I believe suggests that inflation is coming down the pike. I wanted to talk about these reports and provide different arguments about their results; but frankly, I think that would have bored you to pieces.

Instead, I thought I should play the role of a jovial analyst, and present to you some information about inflation in the context of one of our favorite carols, “The Twelve Days of Christmas.” Unless you’ve lived under a rock your entire life, you understand the song talks about 12 cumulative gifts one gives to their true love: 12 drummers drumming, 11 pipers piping, 10 lords a-leaping, 8 maids a-milking, 7 swans a-swimming, 6 geese a-laying, 5 gold rings, 4 calling birds, 3 French hens, 2 turtle doves and a partridge in a pear tree.

Why are there 12 days of Christmas? I have no clue.

PNC Bank has surmised a “Christmas Price Index” which tracks how much these 12 gifts cost and how their prices change throughout the year. It appears the “price of Christmas” per the 12 gifts has increased roughly 2.1% since last year. The year over year average increase for the past thirty years has been roughly 2.8% annually. Below a chart tracks these changes on an annual basis through 2009 to give you some idea of how it has changed:

So how does PNC determine the price of each of the 12 gifts? The price of each item is set as follows:

·         The pear tree comes from a local Philadelphia nursery.

·         The partridge, turtle dove, and French hen prices are determined by the Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Garden.

·         The price of a canary at Petco is used for the calling bird, though the price of a blackbird (colly bird) may reflect the original version of the song.

·         Gordon Jewelers sets the cost of the gold rings, though the gold rings of the song may actually refer to ring-necked pheasants.

·         The maids are assumed to be unskilled laborers earning the federal minimum wage.

·         A Philadelphia dance company provides estimates for the salary of "ladies dancing.”

·         The Philadelphia Ballet estimates the salary for the "leaping lords.”

·         The going-rate for drummers and pipers is that of a Pennsylvania musicians' union.

And of course, like all fun things in life, there are people that just take it too seriously and find ways to be critical about how the index is contrived. Some have complained that the index falls short of good scientific analysis, despite it not being designed for any true scientific purpose.

Critics note that the “eight maids a-milking” isn’t well defined, so only the maids are counted; whereas, some might argue the cost of the cow should be included too. There is also the issue of prices of some gifts being provided by only one store, where a better way to do this is to look for similar product costs that should be averaged over many stores. And lastly, there is even a complaint that ballet dancers are not true substitutes for real lords a-leaping.

Whether or not you buy into the Christmas index, I think most of us agree these gifts would be somewhat unusual by 21st century standards. As for me, I would happily accept a little more peace on Earth. Or even, a little more peace at home, which itself is likely a tall and priceless order.

https://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/CPI/2016-CPI-Chart.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_Price_Index

https://web.archive.org/web/20071229050601/http://www.pncchristmaspriceindex.com/mediaHistory.htm

New CMBS Bill May Make Financing Options Fewer

A new regulation for Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, is scheduled to go into effect in December.  The bill, is made up of a new set of risk retention rules, and will require CMBS lenders to retain a portion of the value of the loans they issue as opposed to selling all them off in bonds.  The risk retention rules were designed to protect issuers from risky lending, a factor which was evident in the crash in 2008. 

The new bill requires lenders to hold on to about 5 percent of the loans they issue, which will result in fewer CMBS lenders and an overall reduction in the amount of loans being originated.  This regulation requires issuers to use more of their own capital, driving down profit margins for lenders and increasing the total overall cost of capital.  Smaller CMBS lenders who do not have the capital resources or capability will likely be priced out of the market, leaving only larger CMBS lenders. 

Before the Great Recession, there were around 40 different CMBS lenders throughout the U.S.  After the crash, the number of lenders dropped down to 10 at one point.  As the market has recovered a bit, CMBS lenders number around 20.  The new bill will cause a similar impact on the number of CMBS lenders as smaller ones will leave the market and larger ones will become more selective in the projects they finance.  The timing of this new regulation is horrible for the CMBS community.

In 2017, over $145 billion of CMBS loans will mature.  Upwards to 45% of those loans will not be able to be paid off at maturity and will need to be refinanced.  Many of these matured loans will have to be refinanced with other sources.  This will drive the demand for financing from other capital sources, such as life insurance companies, credit unions, banks, and agencies.  As the CMBS lenders adjust to the new regulatory landscape, they will likely exercise greater caution in underwriting and originating loans, thus adopting a more conservative approach.  In the past, CMBS was an active option for higher leveraged loans, as other lenders shied away from those credits. 

Also, CMBS lenders were often the go-to source for larger deals in secondary and tertiary markets.  With these new changes, it may be tougher and cost more for investors to obtain financing in those markets.  This result may drive demand for properties in primary costal or gateway markets, where deals require less leverage and borrowers can turn to other lending options for lower interest rates.  We can expect the cost of loans in the non-primary markets to increase. 

One exception to the CMBS rule is for qualified loans.  Loans that meet a qualified status will not require the lender to hold 5 percent of the loan.  A qualified loan requires the amortization and loan to value lower.  An example would be a 10-year loan must have an amortization of 25 years or less.  Leverage cannot exceed 65 percent and a debt coverage ratio must be in the 1.5 to 1.7 range. 

The overall result is that we will see more demand for financing deals that credit unions would not normally see with a more active CMBS market.  We should also note that in many cases the other options for financing may have higher interest rates.  This may help us command a higher rate for these future deals.  

The Credit Union Part in the Greatness of America

There are a few beliefs that we hold as Americans that define us.  One is the exceptionalism of our country.  We have a fundamental value of liberty.  Most countries have constitutions that tell what limitations the citizenry have; ours places limitations on what the government can do.  We realize it is this freedom forms a basis for people to achieve great things.

Another value is we believe that our children will have a better life in the future than what we have experienced.  One large reason why elections move in the ways they do is that people will select leaders who they believe will offer a brighter future and deny those who say that our best days are behind us and we need to elect them to oversee the decline.  Our basis is one of optimism for the future and not that of pessimism. 

Today in America is not a time when we bask in the glory days of the past.  Our best days are before us and we all play a part in making them great.  Our new president said last week, “Now is not the time to downsize our dreams, but to set our sights higher than before for our country.”  This speech made me remember Ronald Reagan’s comments that it is now morning in America.  We are up for a new day with new opportunities.  We do not sit on the sunset of the American promise; we are at the sunrise of a better tomorrow. 

Each of us in our positions in credit unions play a part as agents of change to make our country great.  We do this with service to our fellow citizen.  This is done in many ways.  Some are helping a child begin a lifetime of thrift with their first savings account.  Some may be helping that teenager prepare a budget to help achieve the goal of their first car.  Some may be helping a young couple purchase their first house.  Some may be helping a business grow and expand, thus providing more jobs for our neighbors and wealth for our communities. 

The work you do to server others financially is important.  This field also offers great opportunities for growth and a true career for those who pursue it.  For those who do, you will have a lifetime of making a difference in the lives of people around you. 

Today is the day when we should recognize that we are all agents for positive growth and change in our communities.  We need to fulfill the important role we play as we continue to make our neighborhoods, communities, states, and country grow to reach new heights of potential.  Ideas that were only a dream, will become a goal and then achieved reality.  The work we do in our credit unions, play an important part in our country’s future. 

Each of us can make a difference.  One day this week as I left the credit union that we rent space from to go to lunch.  I had some member that I did not know, walk beside me on the sidewalk outside of the building.  “I love this place,” he said.  “I will never go to another bank because these people believe in me and help me.  I love these people.”

It is time to realize the potential that each of us have to change lives.  We can turn neighbors into members and members into raving fans as we help them achieve more than they thought they could.

A Rose by Any Other Name...the Perils of Naming

In consumer lending, it is relatively straightforward how a loan will get repaid. Someone has an income and a credit report that summarizes what other debts need to get paid. We compare how much income they have with how much debt they have, and make a decision whether they can afford the new loan.

Business lending has effectively the same method for determining repayment. We compare a business’s income with all the debts it has to determine if it can afford more debt. However, we know a business’s income differs from personal income in many ways. The income is likely to change up and down every year, and a business has different types of expenses to worry about. But, we are still focused on their income, which is what will repay the debt. Particularly, we focus on their cash income, which we call cash flow.

How we look at a business’s cash income can create some unique debates at times. Even personal income could be open to interpretation. Say someone has a salary of $40,000 a year. Okay, we can expect various taxes to take away about 1/3 of that income, so someone is actually left with $26,666 to live off and pay debts. But say the person also sells a used car for $5,000. Is the person’s cash income really $26,666 + $5,000 = $31,666? In that particular year, yes, they seem to have an extra $5,000. But that was an unusual situation. If the person is coming in to get a new loan, should we use the income of $26,666 or $31,666 to make the decision? I’m inclined to use the lower amount, unless the person can demonstrate they have a used car to sell for every year the loan is outstanding into the future.

For businesses, we can look at their regular income with a method we call EBIDA, which stands for Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Amortization. In other words, how much cash income a business has before it pays any debts and ignoring non-cash expenses. We can then look at a business’s historical EBIDAs and reasonably project what income to expect in the future.

There is another method for counting a business’s cash income called UCA cash flow. The UCA stands for “Universal Credit Analysis.” This tries to capture all cash events related to the business. So if the business has an EBIDA of $26,666, and it sells a piece of equipment for $5,000, then the UCA cash flow is $31,666. Once again, which way of calculating income do you think makes more sense to evaluate when considering a loan?

In the past year, I’ve heard a lot of murmuring about the need to use UCA cash flow, and I think there is a belief it is superior based on its name alone. After all, it is the Universal Credit Analysis cash flow, right? Well, I would argue strongly that it is not “universal” in its application, nor should it be. Maybe it is called “universal” because it looks at all cash events? Maybe it should be renamed the “comprehensive” or “everything” cash flow?

Believe it or not, UCA cash flow is actually a copyrighted method of calculating cash flow created by RMA back in 1987. I believe they had the best intentions in trying to look at cash flow arising from changes in the balance sheet, which are undoubtedly important to how a business is run and managed.

But regardless of what moves on or off a business balance sheet, it’s sales that we ultimately care about, and whether those sales can cover operating expenses. UCA cash flow is important for large companies, like publicly traded companies that have a more unique balancing act that doesn’t just involve management of bank debt, but the expectations of shareholders and bondholders. As for small business and the middle market, EBIDA is a more powerful tool for predicting tomorrow, since we don’t expect rearranging the balance sheet will be integral to our repayment.

https://cms.rmau.org/uploadedFiles/Credit_Risk/Library/RMA_Journal/Cash_Flow_Analysis/Focusing%20The%20UCA%20Cash%20Flow%20Format%20On%20Lending%20Opportunities.pdf

Will Deregulation Really Bring Oil Jobs Back? Probably Not...

There is murmuring on Wall Street that a Trump presidency will lead to deregulation, and that it is a good thing for oil companies. We all know how the economy of western North Dakota has declined due to changes in the oil markets, so will deregulation really turn this situation around? To better understand, we need to drill down into the economics of the situation.

Let’s first examine the question about whether regulation is impacting oil production. We know that fracking is a hotly contested technology, because it involves injecting pressurized fluid into the ground to breakup formations that contain oil. A highly visible EPA study recently concluded that fracking poses no significant risk to contaminating ground water, which mitigates many reasons to strongly regulate fracking. What could be the major reason the EPA felt there was little concern for contamination? It turns out that fracking occurs far deeper than the water tables we rely on for drinking water, so it is relatively rare that a 10,000 ft. fracking well would impact a 1,000 foot reservoir for human drinking water.

Surprisingly, fracking has few regulations on the national level and is mostly left to the states to regulate. The result is some states shun the technology while others embrace it. The federal government only has strong regulation over wells drilled on federal land, and the states get the last word on any private land. Since a vast majority of wells exist on private land, it is unlikely that a change in federal policy will have much of an impact on all the current and future private wells.

But oil production has drastically decreased in recent years, right? Well, it is not the case that it has drastically reduced, but rather the case it is no longer drastically expanding. And the reason it is not expanding has nothing to do with regulation nor the fact they have failed to find oil. Rather, we became too good at finding the oil. The introduction of fracked oil, especially Bakken oil, to the world markets has led to an oil glut. This has significantly reduced the price of oil for the foreseeable future. As you can see on the graph below from cnbc.com, in 2014 the overall price level of WTI oil slumped. This had much to do with an enormous amount of North Dakota oil wells coming online and sustainably supplying the market with oil.

The oil “bust” in western North Dakota isn’t a “bust” in the traditional sense. It isn’t that the oil dried up or was found to be overexaggerated. Rather, there was so much oil there, it had an enormous impact on the world market and drug down the prevailing price level for oil. With an oversupply of oil, buyers would pay less, and producers had no more incentive to expand or work harder to supply the market.

In conclusion, it is unlikely that any deregulation of fracking on the federal level would have any measurable impact on the production of oil in the United States. However, it is still possible for prices to increase if one particular wild card were to occur. If the United States goes through a period of significant inflation, which we haven’t seen since the eighties, then naturally the price of oil will go up too. So in this case, it wouldn’t be the president-elect’s deregulation effort that lead to an increase in oil prices, but rather an unrelated event that caused the overall prices on everything else in the economy to increase.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/21/us/politics/obama-administration-unveils-federal-fracking-regulations.html?_r=0

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fracking-has-had-no-widespread-impact-on-drinking-water-epa-finds-1433433850

Prospective on the Harvest

The fall harvest in the U.S. has been very bountiful, even reaching record levels with some commodities.  This oversupply has pushed wheat prices to a low for the decade, and corn is still at under 50% of what is was in 2012.  Cattle and hog prices have also dropped.  The low prices combined with higher input and finance costs are making some farmers wonder if they will be able to stay afloat. 

A lot of the farm economy may rest with President Trump and a new Congress, which will have the job of crafting a new farm bill.  These are trillion-dollar, twice-a-decade monster that will set subsidies and can broadly shape the life of the individual farmer.  For the producer, the margins can make a big difference to financial reality. 

Even with the rising costs and declining commodity sales, it was not long ago that farmers’ and ranchers’ wallets were fat.  We saw record profits in 2012 and 2013, exceeding $116 billion, in 2009 inflation adjusted dollars.   But the drop has not been as severe as drops in the 1930s and 1980s, but so far, it has been a return to the levels seen in the 1960s and 1990s, two relatively quiet times in American agriculture.  The challenge that we face now is that producers were getting used to prices that were too high for too long.

Input costs are starting to come down.  Fertilizer and fuel have dropped.  Seed and machinery are the two that resist coming down because of the infrastructure involved in those areas.  Seed costs will eat more revenue in an area of GMOs.  Since 1995 seed costs have increased by 87.5% with the GMO corn, soy, and cotton.  Now the average seed purchase exceeds 4.5% of the farmers’ gross income.  Equipment spending which was crucial to decades of farm mechanization, collapsed in the 1980 farm crisis from its high of 8% of farm gross income.  This has averaged around 4% of farm gross income over the past thirty years with an exception of a run up to 5% with the price peak in 2012-2013. 

Organic food spending is continuing to climb.  The Great Recession slowed annual sales growth from 19.2% to a low of 4.3%.  That level has risen to 10.6%.  The growth rate is phenomenal when total organic sales were under $10 billion in 2005 and sat at $39.75 billion last year.  Some of these smaller farms are making more profit than a non-organic farm that may be a hundred times their size.  Many organic farms also benefit from lower annual input costs once the initial infrastructure has been put in place.

A major push for the corn market came from the renewable fuel legislation passed in 2005 and 2007.  This dramatically increased the mandate for U.S. ethanol use.  In 1990, around 5% of the nation’s corn was used to make ethanol.  This peaked at just over 40% in 2012.  This has dropped to around 38% currently.  It is expected this level will remain constant at it is currently.  This will not provide the extra demand that helped run up corn prices in the past decade. 

Land prices increased with the rising commodity prices and inflation of the 1970s.  That increase is nothing compared to the ethanol fueled farmland boom of the 2000s.  Farm real estate in Iowa averaged around $4,000/acre, in 2009 adjusted dollars, in 1980.  In 2012, this average was up to $8,000/acre.  Land prices have dropped since that peak slightly. 

A combination of the lower commodity prices and higher operating costs are increasing some debt levels for the farmer.  We have seen farmers dip into equity or increase borrowing to continue operations.  This is causing debt to equity ratios to rise in the farm belt from the low ratios we saw in 2012.  There is a push to get bigger to cover the increased fixed costs. 

Exports and federal farm payments have helped the farmer’s income statements but both have limits.  Free trade can give access to new markets for farm products but it also exposes them to foreign competition.  Exports have risen substantially until a peak of 2009 inflation adjusted $140 billion in 2012.  This will drop to around $119 billion this year.  Much of the drop can be attributed to a drop in the commodity price and not a drop in the volume of product shipped abroad. 

Congress had received pressure to pass emergency farm aid in bad years from the 1980s to mid-2000s.  The new programs have made the subsidy payments more automatic.   Overall the subsidies will not prevent the producer from losing money but can help control the depth of the losses. 

Overall, in the next two to three years it may be a challenge for the farmer to break even.  It may not be a repeat of the farm crisis of the 1980s but it still will be a long way away from the days of lush profits we saw just a few years ago.  Producers who are able to smartly leverage technology, control input costs as much as possible, resist the temptation to leverage up, and who seek newer and smarter ways to farm, will be the ones who operate well in the current paradigm.

The Changing Face of Retail Employment

This weekend, my wife and I made a trip to Sam’s Club for some supplies.  The place was a mad house with every cash register line backed up at least 5 people deep.  Shoppers were at a crawling pace through the store as it was packed with people.  I suppose the weekend before Thanksgiving was bringing out everyone.  Once we saw the crowd, we immediately were tempted to just turn around and leave.

But my wife, in her brilliance, suggested I pull out my smartphone and set up the Sam’s Club Scan & Go app.  So I found a quiet spot near the jewelry counter and loaded all my info into the app.  As we travelled through the rows, we scanned each item that we put into the cart.   So it was finally time to check out and I loaded in my payment information into the app in the chip aisle.  A clerk scanned my smartphone on the way out and we were on our way.  The entire trip took 20 minutes and I could have knocked off another 5 minutes if I had already set up the app before we went.

A story on the CBS local news in the San Francisco Bay area reports that Lowe’s is introducing 22 Lo Bots, a robot that roams the aisles and will show customers where items are located.  The Lo Bot is bilingual and communicates with the store’s central computer to locate items.  It then uses a series of lasers and cameras to navigate and then takes you right up to the item.  

A really neat item that comes with Amazon Prime is the Amazon Dash Button.  This is a little 1”x3” device that can be adhered to an object and pushed when you want to order a frequently used domestic product like laundry soap or paper towels.  We have one for Izzies, a sparkling juice drink that my family enjoys.  You push the button and two days later a box shows up on the front porch with Izzies!  I can see how this one can be very dangerous to shows with small kids in the household!

All three of these are examples of how retail is changing before our eyes.  We will see this in the next week as more people shop on Cyber Monday than Black Friday.  Personally, I rather enjoy any method that allows me to complete the shopping errand quicker, giving me more time for other things.  

There is also quite a benefit of savings to the retailers.  Dr. Bill Hardgrave, dean of Auburn University’s business school, says the RFID technology--the tagging of products so they can be tracked, and the most well-known example of the new “Internet of Things” technology—is a huge benefit for retailers.  With RFID tags, retailers can expect 99% inventory accuracy, a 70% reduction in shrinkage, and a 2% to 7% increase in sales.  Self-service checkout machines, automated stacking of shelves, and changing of price tags are also on the rise.  

In each case here, technology is changing the retail landscape.  We see that every day when you go to the store.  The checkouts at the grocery store we usually frequent shrank from 12 checkout lanes down to 8 that are manned and another 9 that are self-service with a station for one employee to oversee.  So this allows the store to hire 3 less clerks and they can check out more people quicker as they now have 17 lanes.  

In each case listed above, technology is making it easier and quicker to purchase items.  It is also providing savings for the store owner.  But one factor to consider is how these changes, which no one will be able to slow down, will continue to impact employment.  Technology is allowing for changes in buying habits which will lessen the need for employees and make those who remain in retail more efficient.  I thought that the employees who wore the t-shirts touting the Sam’s Scan & Go may not be realizing they are advertising for customers to not use them and thus may be working their way out of a job.

So the question is how will the employment landscape change over the next decade?  What jobs do we have now that will become as rare as a blacksmith or a buggy whip manufacturer?  How will this impact people both on the consuming side and also the workers in this industry?  What jobs will open up in the future that are not prevalent now which people will gravitate to?

I sure don’t have any answers here, I am just pointing out the questions.

This week also marks Thanksgiving, a special holiday in our country that was originally set aside to be thankful to God in remembering our blessings.  We, at Pactola, are humbly thankful for the relationships we have with each of you.  We are thankful for the businesses we have been allowed to help fund that have helped better your communities with more jobs and economic activity.   We are also thankful that you have allowed us to help make you better.  Best wishes for a new year filled with warm and cherished memories.

The Impact of Uncertainty

My job, as an analyst, is try and construct a reasonable projection of the future. I do this by looking at historical events and by looking at prevailing market conditions. One thing I cannot effectively model is uncertainty. I can create space for uncertainty through “sensitivity testing,” but it is a fool’s errand to try and predict when and how uncertainty will happen. Uncertainty naturally worries people who need to lock in decisions now regardless of what the future holds, so any change from the expected leads to a new set of winners and losers. 

The result of the last presidential election introduced and enormous amount of uncertainty in the business community, and the results have been fascinating. The recent election will be studied heavily for decades to come because of the large difference between what polling was suggesting and what actually occurred. Nearly all polling organizations predicted Clinton would win the election, and thus many organizations planned accordingly. Clinton, who seemed to bill herself mostly as the continuation of the Obama administration, would have likely resulted in more of the same things we’ve experienced in the past 7 years. Most of this time could be described as steady, yet subdued growth, resulting from gridlock in Congress and the Fed having no more policy tools. Compare this to Trump, which nobody was really sure what to expect. 

Then, on election night, shock rang through markets when it was becoming increasingly clear that Trump could, and would, win the election. At one point, the Dow Jones Index experienced a drop in the futures markets by over 750 points, which is over 4% of the total market value. This drop wasn’t because of fear of what Trump would do as president, but rather because nobody had expected him to become president, and so nobody had time to process what this could mean. As it turns out, over a week after the election, the stock market experienced an enormous rally, with the Dow Jones now only a hair below its record high. Interest rates are also seeing a significant jump as well. The 5-year US Treasury rate was 1.34% when Clinton was expected to win the election, and as of 11/17 the rate closed at 1.73%, which represents a 30% increase! 

There is definitely a lot of uncertainty out there. The increases in the stock market may suggest that business conditions may be improving. But, the wide swing in interest rates could indicate growth, yet fears of inflation too. Another interesting aspect of this election is that the Republican party gained majorities in both houses of Congress as well. This was also unexpected from polling before the election, and it is too early to predict what changes this will bring in fiscal policy. 

 

Personally, I think this only reflects what will become a growing trend in uncertainty going forward. In 2013, the number of registered American voters who consider themselves as independent reached a record high of 42%. One can assume that Democrats and Republicans very roughly split the remainder, giving each party roughly 29%. This means when either party controls both Congress and the Presidency, then 29% of the population is calling the shots for the other 71%. And as control switches back and forth, there will be inevitable turmoil from swinging from one extreme to the other. The American electorate may not be as divided the media portrays, but those who control the levers of power are probably more widely divided than what we actually see. I would interpret this as a lot of uncertainty that does not lend itself to many predictions.

Budgeting : A Failure to Plan is a Plan to Fail

 
 

This weekend, I had the wonderful task of creating the budget for our company.  I must admit, this is not a task I enjoy, especially after I missed the mark so bad when I created the budget for last year.  Sometimes, I think this task is best accomplished by a lot of blind guessing.  There are so many variables one cannot foresee when creating projections. 

But there is certainly value in the budgeting exercise.  Comparison actual numbers with the projection helps to see where there are areas of missed opportunities, and also those where you exceeded your best expectations.  This may help to see where resources may be best deployed for optimal performance. 

Budgeting involves more than just the financials, it also involves calendar planning.  One of our missions is to make as many friends with CUs as we can.  The more CUs we work with, the more buyers there are for loans participations, the more opportunities we have for new loans, and the more opportunities we have to serve the industry.  For us, meeting CUs means planned visits to a lot of national and state league meetings.  It also means personal visits with various CUs around the country.  This all involves a bit of calendar planning. 

Budgeting also involves planning resource needs.  This can include any fixed asset purchases and capital expenditures that are required for the continued needs and growth of the business.  Everything from equipment, furniture, office space, technological resources, and real estate should be reviewed as a budget is created. 

Budgeting requires a review of outside resources that are required for the company.  One item I realized when creating this year’s budget was the need to have our logo trademarked and the legal fees that would be required to do that.  I have been on the other end of accidentally using a log that was too close to one that was trademarked.  So, obtaining a trademark which required costs for a patent and trademark attorney and fees to the US Patent and Trademark Office was required.  Other outside resources you will encounter other than legal fees may be accounting and auditing fees, costs for strategic planning, and educational expenses for your staff.

The budget process will also require a look at your team and assess where additional staff or development for existing staff are needed.  This requires more than just money; it also will require time.  Finding options to develop your team individually and also as a group is essential. 

You may have head that a failure to plan is a plan to fail.  I believe that is true.  Planning requires not only the large budgetary process, but also smaller plans that cover various tasks that may take a few weeks of months to complete.  Planning may involve longer terms than the budgetary year.  I once worked with a large construction company that worked on projects that were to begin 5-10 years in the future.  This required a rather long term view of planning that then drilled down to the annual numbers. 

Another saying is that if you do not set a target and then just shoot, you will always hit your goal each time.  That is true if you have nothing to aim at.   Budgeting begins with your goals and then finding what resources you have and need to accomplish those.

Once you have budgeted several times, you realize that when you really nail it on the head, there is still quite a bit of other factors that had to go right that were outside your control.  There is no sense to become over-confident.  If you miss the mark by a wide margin, you need to have the ability to assess where things went awry and how to create the next budget, keeping in mind your present condition and reality.  Overall, I find this process to be humbling.

Keys to SBA Prospecting

So you have decided to add U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to your financial institution’s loan portfolio.  The SBA program provides a nice way to help mitigate some of the risk that is found in some commercial loans.  The risk is lowered with the guarantee provided by the federal government.  So this should allow you to become involved in more loans and expand your loan portfolio.

But how do you go about finding good SBA prospects?  There are several strategies you should follow to avoid the bad loans and find the good opportunities.  We will first focus on what to not do.

Thou shalt not chase after every business start-up.  An article in Forbes in January 2015 claims that 9 out of 10 business start-ups fail.  An article in Inc. later that year cites that 96% of new businesses fail within 10 years.  So new start-ups have between a 4-10% chance of still being around in ten years depending upon which article you believe.  Most business loans are amortized over a longer period than 10 years so be aware of the very slim success ratio which will mean to be prepared to take losses.  All start-ups should have strong capitalization and management experience.

Thou shalt not lend to a borrower that is not willing to put equity into a project.  The SBA is not to alleviate prudent equity injections required for a business lending project.  In fact, equity is a requirement.  If you cannot trace the equity to hard cash or true equity in assets, and the borrower is not willing to put his stake into the project, walk away.

Thou shalt not just focus on the small deal.  The average SBA loan in 2015 was $371,628.  Many institutions turn their SBA ammo on only the smaller deal.  But with the ceiling of a 7a SBA loan at $5,000,000, it makes sense to look at larger financing opportunities to use for the program.

Thou shalt avoid refinance opportunities.  Refinancing under SBA has quite a few additional rules that must be followed.  SBA is not a solution for refinancing debt for companies with bad operating performance.  It can be used to help refinance debt that has an upcoming balloon, or can provide a payment savings of 10% or more. 

Thou shalt avoid borrowers with prior losses to the U.S. Government, poor personal credit, and poor personal character.  SBA is never to be used for a mitigant for these situations.  You still need to maintain your standards for a SBA loan as you would on a non-SBA loan. 

Thou shalt not attempt to use SBA for non-owner occupied real estate, non-profit, SBA restricted industries, or credit card refinance. 

Thou shalt focus on good, well-run, small- to medium-sized businesses. Just because a business is a good performer does not mean that it is too good for the SBA.  Many times these well-run companies are perfect for a SBA as they grow and need to take their company to the next level.  Don’t just focus on the high-risk company that is a marginal player.  Remember, the SBA provides a guarantee on a portion of the note, so you will have to accept a loss as well. 

Thou shalt focus on business expansions, real estate, and equipment.  SBA is not just for the unsecured operating line.  It works best when there is an existing, well-run business, that is seeking to rise to the next level.  This expansion may require a new facility, equipment purchase, or building expansion. 

Thou shalt look for buyouts that make sense.  SBA is a good tool for a business buyout financing, as it helps lower the risk to you.  Good areas to focus on are professional companies that have an ongoing client list such as a doctor, dentist, or veterinarian.  In many cases, the SBA provides a method that the young professional can take over an existing clinic as they build up their business.  Make sure there is adequate equity that the buyer is putting into the project and there also may be a requirement the seller carry back some of the goodwill in a subordinate financing. 

Thou shalt consider SBA when looking at restricted industries to your loan policy.  If you have restrictions on hotels, restaurants, or contractors, using the SBA guarantee may help you provide financing to a good lending opportunity within those industries. 

Thou shalt contact Pactola for help.  When you have a SBA opportunity, contact us.  We have several credit unions that use us as a Lender Service Provider with the SBA.  We can help walk you through the process.

Yield Curve 101

Working at a credit union, you are well aware of how an interest rate can be different for each person based on their credit score. A person with a bad credit score will be expected to pay higher interest rates to try and compensate for the risk of lending to them. And of course, people with the best credit scores get the lowest rates. But have you ever thought that there are other factors that can impact the interest rate?

You know that home loan rates differ from auto rates. And, unsecured loans or personal loans can have very high rates. That is because the type of underlying collateral (or lack thereof) drives the risk of lending too. Another thing you may have not considered is the term of a loan also affects whether a rate will be higher or lower. This is because of uncertainty. If we make a loan for 15 years, we don’t know if someone will continue to have the same ability to pay for all of those 15 years into the future. So, the longer we make a loan for, the more risk we need to price into the interest rate, and generally the interest rate will be higher.

Long-term loans also present a unique risk to the credit union in terms of interest rate risk. If a credit union makes a loan for 15 years, and then interest rates move up, the money in that 15-year loan will be stuck receiving a lower interest rate until the loan pays off.  The credit union then loses out on the chase to make money at a higher interest rate.

This opportunity cost of being stuck with a lower interest rate into the future is something studied heavily in finance. We can actually map out what interest rates look like from today, if we make a short-term loan or a long-term loan. This graph is typically referred to as the Yield Curve. And as you might expect, the longer the interest is fixed for, the higher the rate usually is. Below, you will see a graph I have made using interest rates from 2005, 2007 and 2016.

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As you can see, the interest rates for all of 2016 have pretty much followed a similar pattern. The line on the very top of the 2016 bundle is actually our current yield curve for the end of October 2016. The yield curve for May 2005 (when I graduated college) has a similar shape, but is notably adjusted considerably higher than current rates. So overall, in the past 11 years, rates have come down considerably. And lastly, the 2007 yield curve actually slopes downwards. Why is that?!

What is particularly fascinating about the yield curve is that it can be a predictor for the economy too. If investors suspect a recession is about to occur, they expect the Fed will lower rates, thus we will see lower rates in the future. This will cause the yield curve to actually slope downwards or flatten out. Clearly, in 2007, investors expected a recession, which surely followed in 2008.

You can likely assume the opposite is true, which is when the yield curve slopes upwards, investors are more optimistic about the future and are expecting the Fed to potentially raise rates in the future. And what is notable about October 2016 is the yield curve has a stronger upward slope than the immediately preceding months in 2016. Perhaps this is because the economy is showing more strength, and a Fed rate hike is becoming more likely.

Buying a Business

If you have been in commercial lending or finance for any period of time, you probably have fielded a question regarding how to buy an existing business.  Now if you have not had this question, some day you will.   This is a common request as there are many reasons for business owners to sell and for future business owners to buy a firm.  Typically, the second question after they ask if you can help finance a business purchase is how much they should pay for the business.

There are several methods in determining the value of a business.  The easiest way occurs if you have a business that derives all of its income from a single tangible asset.  Examples here are an apartment building, office park, or a hotel.  In each of these cases, one tangible asset provides the revenue stream for the business.  In these cases, revenue comes from apartment rents, office tenant leases, or hotel guests.  Value can be determined by utilizing some method like a market cap rate or discounted cash flow analysis. 

But what do you do if there is a mixture of tangible capital assets and also non-tangible assets?  One method would be to assign values to both the tangible and intangible assets in figuring value.  If a manufacturer has real estate and heavy equipment, part of the purchase price can be comprised of the market value of these assets.  The remaining value can take into account intangible assets such as the business name, client list, or goodwill. 

A second method looks at the tangible net worth of the business and figures a value based upon the owner’s equity in the business.  This method may be applicable if the buyer is assuming the existing debts of the company in a stock or ownership purchase.  Most business buyouts I have seen, tend to be a bulk asset purchase of all the assets of the company and assuming none of the existing debts of the selling owner. 

Typically, with the tangible net worth method, the seller still will want some amount of goodwill for the intrinsic value of the business that is provided to the buyer over and above the market value of the tangible assets. 

Another method, the capitalized earnings approach, looks at the value of an investment that is expected by an investor.  This strategy seems to be geared more toward buyer than the seller.  An example here would be if a buyer of an ice cream shop would expect a rate of return, or cap rate, of 12% on his investment.  The overall net operating income, or stabilized version thereof, would be divided by the rate of return to create a price for the business.  A variation of this method is the excess earnings method, where a return on assets is separated from other earnings. 

A gross income multiple may be used to figure value by using some multiple or fraction of the top line revenue the company produces in a given year.  I have seen this done with some medical practices, where this factor is used in determining a portion or all of the price. 

Financing a business with large amounts of intangibles can be challenging.  Any financing of goodwill would not be able to be collateralized.  Some options would be to have the buyer provide additional tangible collateral, allow the seller to carry back junior debt that would carry the intangible value, or utilize some guarantee program like the SBA to help lessen the risk of the collateral shortfall. 

A seller carry may be used without or with a guarantee program.  The carry must be in a junior position to your loan and may have to satisfy some requirements of the lender or government guarantee.  Typically, the business would need to be able to cash flow all the debts.  Repayment of the seller carry in some cases may be required to be on some form of standby to the lender debt and may also be required to amortize at a slower pace than the senior lender debt. 

We can help you when the business buyout question comes across your desk.  We also work with different government guaranteed programs to help better manage the risk in the business purchase.  These loan requests can open up new doors of wonderful business for your credit union.  

The Cost of Doing Nothing

Doing nothing is doing something. When faced with a hard or complicated decision, some people feel it is better not to make decision or wait until the facts become more clear. However, waiting can cost you.

In the broadest sense, we call this cost an opportunity cost. If you are putting off the decision to build a new branch, then you are forgoing any future income you could earn from the new location until you finally go through with the project. If you are waiting to move the credit union’s excess cash into investments, your opportunity cost is the interest income you could have earned on those investments in the meantime.

In a more direct sense, we call the cost of waiting a holding cost. This is the cost you incur waiting to achieve your objective. An example of this can be seen with the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform that blew up in 2010, which resulted from BP pressuring its workers to take safety short cuts. Every day the platform wasn’t producing money came at an extraordinary cost to the company, so they wanted the well drilled as fast as possible. Drilling platforms can cost over $500,000 a day to operate. That is a serious holding cost if you are not producing anything!

 For a credit union, a holding cost could be the money you are losing after you opened your new branch while waiting for it to generate enough income to break-even. If that branch will never be profitable, then you need to consider if that loss justifies furthering your mission.

There is another way doing nothing can cost you by failing to fix problems. By allowing a problem to persist, your decision to do nothing has measurable costs as well. If you have bad computer systems or slow computer systems, doing nothing about it has an increased labor cost since your employees can’t work as fast. Not having enough computerized systems is an even better example of this.

I also often see the costs of doing nothing manifested as a desire not to know. Some businesses or operations lack good reporting or proper reporting. If you are a business with poor bookkeeping, then you wouldn’t even know if you are losing money. If a company produces multiple goods or services but doesn’t track each activity individually, how would they know the profitability of one isn’t masking the poor performance of another?

If you are a credit union, and if you don’t track the profit and loss of each branch individually, how else would you know if some of your branches are unprofitable? And even if you believe your mission doesn’t mean every location must be profitable, it would still behoove you to know how much any location loses so you can properly tailor services and costs. In this sense, there is a cost to not knowing your true cost.

Doing nothing is a real business decision with costs if you are a manager or executive. Doing nothing because of ignorance is truly equivalent to burying your head in the sand. Of course, doing nothing could make sense, when you know it costs less than doing something. But, that argument only makes sense when you perfectly understand both the cost of doing something and nothing.

Could Automation Lead to More Job Opportunities in the Future?

This last weekend I wasn’t able to catch much of the Sunday political talk shows, and maybe that is because I’m beginning to tune out further election coverage to save my sanity. But I briefly caught a blurb on one show about universal basic income, which is something I had wrote about before in a previous post I made here: http://pactola.com/blog/2016/7/1/how-many-jobs-will-be-lost-to-automation

The idea behind universal basic income is that it provides guaranteed payments to everyone, to protect against large-scale social strife that may result from people losing their jobs to automation. I feel this is a grandiose idea that could have only been hatched in the 21st century, and in way it is socialism reinvented. I can say that, because I spent time in the former Soviet Union and I’m not casting political aspersions.

I understand the intentions are well meant, but does the mere fact you exist entitle you to a basic level of income, for not even working?! I strongly believe in assisting those who have lost their jobs, but I’m not sure handing everyone a free paycheck is the best way to wash our hands of the problem of a changing job market. I wonder what our ancestors would say. Imagine the immigrants that poured through Ellis Island, the homesteaders who constructed sod houses on the barren prairie, or the families who built businesses from the ground-up. None of these people felt they were owed a paycheck just for existing, and all they wanted was a chance. What happened to that sense of seeking out opportunity?

It’s not that we shouldn’t dream about a more comfortable and easier future, but the idea of universal basic income makes the assumption that people aren’t seeking opportunity or they simply can’t. It also seems to make the assumption that people cannot adapt. It basically assumes that if someone is a teller at a credit union or bank, that they will be fired if their job is automated. And worse, they will no longer be able to do anything else, because all they have come to know is life as a teller.

We can already see how these assumptions will not hold true. I think it is unlikely institutions would fire tellers, but rather move them to other tasks that need done, and even finding more valuable tasks the institution wants to address. And even if larger, less caring institutions did layoff tellers, surely they will be able to find other jobs that may or may not be related to banking. This is what automation has always effectively done in society; free up people from less productive activities so they can occupy themselves with more productive actives for society.

This talk show had someone providing an astute counterargument to universal basic income. When we were an agrarian society, we had over 60% of our workforce devoted to agriculture. Now, we have 2% or less. Talk about massive job losses, right? And yet, that isn’t what happened at all. All of these people who were engaged in farming had their time freed up to find different jobs. And the same technologies that improved agriculture also created additional jobs for those people.

In the long-run, I don’t think automation will lead to any serious shift in unemployment, but rather continue to contribute to “natural unemployment.” This is a phenomenon largely attributed to the disappearance of old jobs that are no longer needed, and we believe it holds relatively steady around 3-4%. Of course nobody likes to see job losses in the short-run, but holding onto the old way of doing this is not healthy for the economy in long run. Should we really have fought to keep manufacturers of buggies and buggy whips? The workers today who will have their jobs automated will be working in positions that don’t even exist yet, but I think ingenuity will likely give them something even better to do.

Getting Up After Being Knocked Down

One of the movies I loved growing up was Chariots of Fire.  It is the story of two athletes in the 1924 Olympics: Eric Liddell, a devout Scottish Christian who runs for the glory of God, and Harold Abrahams, an English Jew who runs to overcome prejudice. 

A scene in the movie reveals a lot about grit, determination, and never giving up in the face of adversity.  Liddell is in a race and he is pushed to the infield and off the track.  It would have been quite easy to just wallow around in the cool grass, but that was not what Liddell did.  He sprung to his feet and sped through the track like a man possessed.  Soon he caught up with the last runner in the pack and then began one by one to pass each of them on his way to the finish.  He wins the race after unbelievable odds stacked against him. 

History is full of stories of those overcome their odds, those who fail and continue to move forward.  They are in inspiration to each of us when we experience our own failures.  It allows us to move forward and make progress when the everything else around us seems to tell us to stop, that we have made a good effort and no one would fault us from quitting.  In the spirit of growing after failure, I have compiled some quotes on the subject which are as follows.  I hope you enjoy.

1. “If you’re not prepared to be wrong, you’ll never come up with anything original.” – Ken Robinson

2. “Do one thing every day that scares you.” – Eleanor Roosevelt

3. “Everything you want is on the other side of fear.” – Jack Canfield

4. “Failure should be our teacher, not our undertaker. Failure is delay, not defeat. It is a temporary detour, not a dead end. Failure is something we can avoid only by saying nothing, doing nothing, and being nothing.” – Denis Waitley

5. “Forget about the consequences of failure. Failure is only a temporary change in direction to set you straight for your next success.” – Denis Waitley

6. “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas A. Edison

7. “When we give ourselves permission to fail, we, at the same time, give ourselves permission to excel.” – Eloise Ristad

8. “What is the point of being alive if you don’t at least try to do something remarkable?” – John Green

9. Failure is part of the process of success. People who avoid failure also avoid success.” – Robert T. Kiyosaki

10. “Giving up is the only sure way to fail.” – Gena Showalter

11. “Everything you want is on the other side of fear.”  – Jack Canfield

12. “There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure.” – Paulo Coelho

13. “Develop success from failures. Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success.” – Dale Carnegie

14. “Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.” – Winston Churchill

15. “Don’t be afraid to fail. Don’t waste energy trying to cover up failure. Learn from your failures and go on to the next challenge. It’s ok to fail. If you’re not failing, you’re not growing.” – H. Stanley Judd

16. “We are all failures – at least the best of us are.” – J.M. Barrie

17. “You’ll always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” –  Wayne Gretzky

18. “Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.” – Robert F. Kennedy

19. “Failure is the key to success; each mistake teaches us something.” – Morihei Ueshiba

20. “Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.” George Herman “- Babe” Ruth

21. “If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.” – Dale Carnegie

22. “There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work and learning from failure.” – Colin Powel